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Study: Lost jobs won't return until 2017

Study: Lost jobs won't return until 2017

Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Last updated: Wednesday September 30, 2009, 3:31 PM

BY KATHLEEN LYNN

NorthJersey.com

STAFF WRITER

 

While the recession appears to be over, the job market is still eight years away from full recovery, two Rutgers economists said  Wednesday.

?Even if we return to vigorous global growth in 2010, it would take us to mid-2017 to get back to the labor market conditions of December 2007,? said economist James Hughes, co-author of a new study, ?America?s New Post-Recession Employment Arithmetic.?

New Jersey faces the same daunting employment challenges as the rest of the nation ? plus the fallout from job losses on Wall Street, Hughes said.

?The full brunt of financial job losses hasn?t been felt yet,? because many of those laid-off workers got six-month or one-year severance packages, Hughes said. But as those job losses filter into the economy, he said, ?2010 looks like it?s going to be an extraordinarily difficult year for New Jersey and the broader New York region.?

 New Jersey also faces stress on its large retail and wholesale trade sector, added Hughes? co-author, Joseph Seneca. That?s because consumers have cut back their spending as home values and stock portfolios shrunk.

 By the end of this year, the nation will have lost 7.55 million private-sector jobs in the recession, which began in December 2007, Hughes and Seneca predicted. Adding people who entered the workforce in that period, the nation has a deficit of 9.4 million jobs, according to the report.

 Partly as a result of the recession, the nation is on track to end this decade with a net loss of jobs ? the first time this has happened since the Depression. The economists gave several reasons, including increased worker productivity, thanks to technology, and corporations? desire to contain costs.

With jobs so scarce, states will compete even more fiercely for corporations looking to expand or relocate, Seneca and Hughes said.

?Lower-cost states will have a key advantage,? Hughes said. New Jersey is considered to be one of the more expensive states to do business, because of high taxes and regulatory and real estate costs. On the other hand, Hughes said, corporations also weigh such factors as access to markets, a skilled workforce and educational quality ? all areas where the Garden State scores well.

While earlier recessions fell hardest on factory and construction workers, Seneca said, half of the job losses in this recession have been in the services, which make up the bulk of the economy. That may reflect recent employment losses in finance and real estate, as well as global competition for service jobs, the report said.

The report was co-sponsored by Rutgers and Advance Realty of Bedminster, an owner and developer of commercial and multifamily properties.

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While the recession appears to be over, the job market is still eight years away from full recovery, two Rutgers economists said  Wednesday.

?Even if we return to vigorous global growth in 2010, it would take us to mid-2017 to get back to the labor market conditions of December 2007,? said economist James Hughes, co-author of a new study, ?America?s New Post-Recession Employment Arithmetic.?

New Jersey faces the same daunting employment challenges as the rest of the nation ? plus the fallout from job losses on Wall Street, Hughes said.

?The full brunt of financial job losses hasn?t been felt yet,? because many of those laid-off workers got six-month or one-year severance packages, Hughes said. But as those job losses filter into the economy, he said, ?2010 looks like it?s going to be an extraordinarily difficult year for New Jersey and the broader New York region.?

 New Jersey also faces stress on its large retail and wholesale trade sector, added Hughes? co-author, Joseph Seneca. That?s because consumers have cut back their spending as home values and stock portfolios shrunk.

 By the end of this year, the nation will have lost 7.55 million private-sector jobs in the recession, which began in December 2007, Hughes and Seneca predicted. Adding people who entered the workforce in that period, the nation has a deficit of 9.4 million jobs, according to the report.

 Partly as a result of the recession, the nation is on track to end this decade with a net loss of jobs ? the first time this has happened since the Depression. The economists gave several reasons, including increased worker productivity, thanks to technology, and corporations? desire to contain costs.

With jobs so scarce, states will compete even more fiercely for corporations looking to expand or relocate, Seneca and Hughes said.

?Lower-cost states will have a key advantage,? Hughes said. New Jersey is considered to be one of the more expensive states to do business, because of high taxes and regulatory and real estate costs. On the other hand, Hughes said, corporations also weigh such factors as access to markets, a skilled workforce and educational quality ? all areas where the Garden State scores well.

While earlier recessions fell hardest on factory and construction workers, Seneca said, half of the job losses in this recession have been in the services, which make up the bulk of the economy. That may reflect recent employment losses in finance and real estate, as well as global competition for service jobs, the report said.

The report was co-sponsored by Rutgers and Advance Realty of Bedminster, an owner and developer of commercial and multifamily properties.

Re: Study: Lost jobs won't return until 2017

  • I am not surprised at all.  The article mentions severance but it also should have included unemployment benefits.  What happens to the people who run out of unemployment and still can't find jobs?
    Baby Birthday Ticker Ticker
  • image chocoholicchick:
    I am not surprised at all.  The article mentions severance but it also should have included unemployment benefits.  What happens to the people who run out of unemployment and still can't find jobs?

    And what happens if you're an older worker? Ageism and agendas exist.

    What happens if the field you are in is dead in your area? What are you supposed to do -- relocate?

    These jobs are gone and are not coming back.

  • Agreed, the list goes on and on re "what happens to..."  I guess people must reinvent themselves to fit the new economic order just like how people transitioned into technology during the tech boom.  I just think it's frightening since I have no idea what's the next "it" market. 

    I feel awful for the older workers and those who are so close, but not yet retired.  As far as relocating goes, I fear that many of us will have to do that in order to find something, anything.  It makes you wonder just how many more mortgage defaults/foreclosures will occur with that type of mentality involved since some people my really have no choice but to pick up and leave in search of a job while being upside down on a mortgage.

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  • This is why I don't understand some people who think Obama should have had the economy fixed YESTERDAY. It takes a LONG time to recover from a recession. It always has, and barring some sort of economic miracle, it always will.
  • Or think about all of the people who just graduated who cannot find jobs but need to start paying off there debt.

    I feel lied to all my life. I graduated with honors, did tons of vol work, was on a varsity sport team in college and won a political science & history awarded, etc. So basically the model student but cannot I find a history teaching position in Denver Metro, nope. Not even in the poor districts. I was applying to positions that I find out had over 200 poeple applying for one job. I even baked cookies and to get my name noticed. They always say work hard, do good in school, blah, blah, blah... But it is a lie.

    And there are tons of other Substitute teachers out there in my position. It is just depressing and there is not much else we can do to fix it except wait it out and hope to survive. 

     

  • image marceasue:

    Or think about all of the people who just graduated who cannot find jobs but need to start paying off there debt.

    I feel lied to all my life. I graduated with honors, did tons of vol work, was on a varsity sport team in college and won a political science & history awarded, etc. So basically the model student but cannot I find a history teaching position in Denver Metro, nope. Not even in the poor districts. I was applying to positions that I find out had over 200 poeple applying for one job. I even baked cookies and to get my name noticed. They always say work hard, do good in school, blah, blah, blah... But it is a lie.

    And there are tons of other Substitute teachers out there in my position. It is just depressing and there is not much else we can do to fix it except wait it out and hope to survive. 

     

    I think our ideology in the U.S about achievement is definitely problematic. It's not true in life that everyone who tries can excel, that everyone who pulls themselves up by the bootstraps will "make it", or that poor people are poor simply because they are lazy and rich people are rich because they work harder than everyone else. Sadly, it's only during economic recessions that we realize that structural factors matter. After all, why do you think Roosevelt passed the Social Security Act right after the depression?

    I'm not sure who "they" is that was lying to you, but unfortunately, this is one of your first sucky lessons that "they" is often wrong.

  • image amanjay:

    I think our ideology in the U.S about achievement is definitely problematic. It's not true in life that everyone who tries can excel, that everyone who pulls themselves up by the bootstraps will "make it", or that poor people are poor simply because they are lazy and rich people are rich because they work harder than everyone else. Sadly, it's only during economic recessions that we realize that structural factors matter. After all, why do you think Roosevelt passed the Social Security Act right after the depression?

    ITA and IMO, I think the problem lies in the attitude on whether achievement is a right or a privilege.  Funny, it's the same argument re homeownership. 

    I think we all have the right to pursue achievement but the pursuit itself does not necessarily guarantee a successful result.  If people can remember that, I bet that we would have a lot less disgruntled people in the world. 

    Baby Birthday Ticker Ticker
  • image marceasue:

    Or think about all of the people who just graduated who cannot find jobs but need to start paying off there debt.

    I feel lied to all my life. I graduated with honors, did tons of vol work, was on a varsity sport team in college and won a political science & history awarded, etc. So basically the model student but cannot I find a history teaching position in Denver Metro, nope. Not even in the poor districts. I was applying to positions that I find out had over 200 poeple applying for one job. I even baked cookies and to get my name noticed. They always say work hard, do good in school, blah, blah, blah... But it is a lie.

    And there are tons of other Substitute teachers out there in my position. It is just depressing and there is not much else we can do to fix it except wait it out and hope to survive. 

    My response:  It did post it in the right position (Sisugal)

    There are alot of people who have done everything "right" and have now lost their jobs.  They not only have student loans to pay, they also have a mortgage, car payment, credit cards and a family to support. 

    There are NO guarantees in life.  If you want to teach history, you may have to move.  You have the skills to make a good life - teaching or otherwise.  You have to adapt to life's circumstances. (Read Who Moved My Cheese) and do what it takes.  Those who succeed - adapt and do what they need to do (yes, even if they do not want to, was not the original plan.)  Life does not hand out rewards for jumping through  the "right "hoops.

  • Lesson #1 - Life is not fair.

    Lesson #2 - Deal with what you have  on your plate (not what you wish was there)

    Lesson #3 - Don't expect someone else to do it for you

  • image amanjay:
    This is why I don't understand some people who think Obama should have had the economy fixed YESTERDAY. It takes a LONG time to recover from a recession. It always has, and barring some sort of economic miracle, it always will.

    I don't expect him to fix it asap, but then why are Biden, and Obama, saying we are recovering?  How can a recovery take place when there are no jobs?  

    Baby Birthday Ticker Ticker
  • image TefLepOM:

    I don't expect him to fix it asap, but then why are Biden, and Obama, saying we are recovering?  How can a recovery take place when there are no jobs?  

    It's a publicity tool to try and keep spirits up.  Some are hoping that getting back consumer confidence just might help the economy continue an upward trend vs another downward spiral.  I almost choked on my food when I read the article about Bernanke announcing that the technical end of the recession arrived.  Um, only academics care about the "technical" aspect of a recession since everyone else is still feeling its effects and will continue to do so for quite a while.  

    Baby Birthday Ticker Ticker
  • image Sisugal:

    Lesson #1 - Life is not fair.

    Lesson #2 - Deal with what you have  on your plate (not what you wish was there)

    Lesson #3 - Don't expect someone else to do it for you

    Hey did I ever say I was not dealing with what was on my plate, I am by subbing. And I never said I excepted any one to fix it because I said no one can fix it.

    I just think a lot of poeple are going through what I am going through and there is not much we can do except survive, till the economy swings back up and poeple start hiring again.

  • image Sisugal:

    Lesson #1 - Life is not fair.

    Lesson #2 - Deal with what you have  on your plate (not what you wish was there)

    Lesson #3 - Don't expect someone else to do it for you

    Well that should definitely help her find a job. 

    Part of the problem is that our culture pushes the idea that if you stay in school, go to college and work hard, you'll achieve success (and by the flip side, anyone who doesn't achieve success it must be because they failed to work hard and do these things). It's just not true. Plenty of people do everything they're supposed to do and still can't even make a decent living. And lots of people who are successful are there because of luck and circumstances, not because they necessarily worked harder or were smarter than anyone else. 

    "I
  • image talltalltrees:
    image Sisugal:

    Lesson #1 - Life is not fair.

    Lesson #2 - Deal with what you have  on your plate (not what you wish was there)

    Lesson #3 - Don't expect someone else to do it for you

    Well that should definitely help her find a job. 

    Part of the problem is that our culture pushes the idea that if you stay in school, go to college and work hard, you'll achieve success (and by the flip side, anyone who doesn't achieve success it must be because they failed to work hard and do these things). It's just not true. Plenty of people do everything they're supposed to do and still can't even make a decent living. And lots of people who are successful are there because of luck and circumstances, not because they necessarily worked harder or were smarter than anyone else. 

    I did not mean to be offensive in any way.  However, I was reading an unrealistic tone to her OP. Just because someone does all the "right thngs' guarantees NOTHING.   Getting a History teaching job may be impossible if she doesn't want to move.  So OK - deal with that ant move on.   What else can offer to an employer?  Can she start her own business. Etc.   If she wants to hold out for a local teaching job, she may have to reduce her lifestyle for now and continue to live like a poor college student.

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